![]() Since 1998, teams that made the semifinals of the World Cup have, on average, won better than 60% of their final five games before the tournament. They were relegated from the first tier of the Nations League and haven't won any of their past six games. Iran (Group B): England have been awful ever since I wrote those first predictions. Qatar can play some nice possession soccer at times (see: their match against the United States at the 2021 Gold Cup) - but it's hard to see them not getting overpowered by bigger and stronger teams.ĭespite some fun talent, Ecuador don't seem all that good - they barely eked out a positive goal differential in qualifying - but they should cruise in this one.Įngland vs. Per the ratings, the gap between them and the 31st-ranked defensive team (Costa Rica) is bigger than the gap between Costa Rica and No. ![]() They're 50th in the FIFA rankings, and Twenty First Group's model rates them as the worst defensive team in the tournament by a good margin. Is Qatar's World Cup an attempt at sportswashing, or something more? ![]() There's no other way to say it, really: Qatar are the worst host nation team in the history of the World Cup, and the Qataris are only in the tournament because of the incredibly dubious process that led to their country being awarded the tournament. Does the fact that no one had thought about this until a couple of months ago bode well for the general logistical success of a massive global event taking place in a tiny desert nation? It does not, but we've already lost the thread here. Ecuador (Group A): One big thing that's changed since the first go-round? The date of and participants in the opening game! Senegal-Netherlands was supposed to be the opener, but tournament organizers have since bumped up this match a day to ensure the host nation gets Game 1. I'll reference their ratings throughout this journey it's just another tool to help guide us from start to finish. With international soccer, there aren't enough games to truly judge a team based on its recent results, and the rosters are always changing, so this player-based method attempts to address those problems. Like last time, all of the stats mentioned in the piece come from Stats Perform, but unlike last time, we are only looking at data from competitive matches played since August 1, 2021.Īnd also like last time, I've employed the help of the consultancy Twenty First Group, which has built a model that combines individual player ratings and team performance to create a rating for every international team. Some of the predictions and analysis from the first time around will not change, while other parts will read very differently. So, with this added information, we're running it back and predicting all the matches from Nov. Players have been injured, players have played poorly, players have appeared out of nowhere, and managers have left their jobs. (Sorry, Paul Pogba, N'Golo Kante, Diogo Jota, Reece James, and on and on.) We now know who's playing, both at a micro and macro level, in a way I did not, back in April. (Sorry, Peru!) And so have the 26-man rosters for all 32 teams. Since then, the final two slots in the tournament were confirmed. When I first did this, seven months ago, I wrote the following: "Players can get injured, players can play poorly, players can appear out of nowhere, managers can quit their jobs - the list of complicating factors is endless." And yet, I still went ahead and made a prediction for all 64 of the matches scheduled to be played in Qatar. Predicting the entire 2022 World Cup, from Qatar vs. ![]() You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser ![]()
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